The summer of 2014 is shaping up to be huge. As a bevy of free agents potentially become available, the Los Angeles Lakers are in the perfect position to have its pick of the litter. Los Angeles could find itself competing for LeBron James or Carmelo Anthony, who both have early termination options after next season. The chances of either player going to Los Angeles, however, is anything but certain.
Losing Dwight Howard hurt the team this season, but it also set the Lakers up for next year. After this season, the Lakers have only Steve Nash and Robert Sacre on the books.
Los Angeles is presently $10.7 million over the tax level and needs to get under it this season - first, to avoid the repeater tax, which goes into effect for the 2014-15 season, and second, to have the option next summer of doing sign-and-trade deals. With the team's amnesty provision still unused, it's likely Metta World Peace will be waived before July 16.
Assuming the Lakers' finances are in order for next summer, the biggest free agents are James and Anthony, provided they choose to exercise their early termination options. Which superstar is more likely to join the Lakeshow?
Regardless of where James signs, ESPN expects him to opt out of his contract on June 30, 2014. Even if he chooses to remain in Miami, opting out allows him to sign a new, max five-year deal. But it's uncertain what shape the Heat roster will be in. The Heat are already $14.8 million above the tax line. Because it'll be the third straight year Miami has been over, the team faces trade restrictions for being above the tax apron and a hefty tax bill once the repeater tax kicks in.
In other words, there's no guarantee that Miami will be able to field a competitive team around James.
Chris Bosh could be the first major salary cap casualty. With Dwyane Wade's play declining, and Miami's future beyond the 2013-14 season in question, James could choose to take his talents elsewhere.
Could that be the Lakers? The bright lights of Los Angeles are alluring, and the team certainly has the money to pay him. But, with only two players under contract beyond this season, there's no clear picture of what the Lakers' roster will look like. The only indication James has given about his future, however, is that he isn't looking beyond this season.
Anthony's situation is less dire. New York's finances aren't as bad, and this season is the first time in three years that the Knicks are over the luxury tax line - New York won't immediately face the repeater tax.
The biggest concern for the Knicks will be the same sign-and-trade restrictions for being over the tax apron. The Knicks are in a position to continue building a team around Anthony if the front office gets creative with their roster - the Knicks have only $27.4 million in guaranteed money on the books for the 2014-15 season.
Given that Anthony also pushed so hard to play in New York, it's unlikely he leaves the Big Apple and even less likely if Mike D'Antoni, his former coach, is still in Los Angeles.
Whatever the chances, the Lakers are certain to at least explore its options if the players opt out of their contracts in 2014.
*Statistics obtained from HoopsWorld.com and Mark Deeks of Shamsports.com.
