Will the Oklahoma City Thunder do to Kevin Durant what they did to James Harden? ESPN analyst Tom Penn believes the way Russell Westbrook has played this season without Durant makes it "much more likely" the Thunder trade Durant next season.
Rather than risk losing Harden for nothing, Thunder general manager Sam Presti traded him in 2012 - a year before Harden would have hit restricted free agency - to the Houston Rockets. According to Penn, Presti is now "much more likely" to make the same preemptive move with Durant.
Penn (via ESPN SportsNation):
"I think this burst from Westbrook makes it much more likely that Durant ultimately gets traded next year. ... Sam Presti has proven that he does not ever want to lose anybody for nothing. So he traded James Harden a year early to avoid a potential luxury tax problem a year later.
"The Kevin Durant drumbeat next year is going to be so loud because he will not commit early to Oklahoma City contractually because the rules are against that. He can't get the same contract if he signs early as if he just goes to free agency and resigns.
"So if Sam Presti doesn't get that commitment, he'll look to trade Kevin Durant. And looking at the performance of Westbrook and the team around Westbrook will make it easier for him to do that potentially."
The idea of trading Durant seems preposterous, but it does make sense in one scenario: If Presti knew with 100 percent certainty Durant won't re-sign in 2016. Similar to the Cleveland Cavaliers' situation with LeBron James in 2010, Durant is too valuable for the Thunder to trade without first being absolutely certain he won't re-sign - something that may not happen until the last minute next summer. But if Durant were to tell Presti before next year's trade deadline there was no chance of him staying beyond his current contract, it's a different story. Presti would have no other choice then but to trade the reigning MVP to avoid losing him for nothing in free agency.
Players - Kevin Love and Carmelo Anthony, for example - have held free agency over their teams' heads before to force trades, and Presti has shown - Harden, Reggie Jackson - he won't risk losing a talented player for nothing in return.
As for Durant, he's given no indication of his plans for the future. Barring an organizational collapse, Oklahoma City is widely viewed as the frontrunner to re-sign him. His hometown team, the Washington Wizards, also has been mentioned as a possible destination.
