New research revealed a rise in measles cases in the three countries most strongly affected by the Ebola outbreak.
The findings also predict the measles outbreak will grow from the 127,000 victims seen at the start in the epidemic in 2014 to 227,000 after 18 months of the outbreak, the University of Southampton reported. This could cause a rise in measles deaths of as many as 16,000, which is about double the number of reported Ebola deaths. To make their findings a team of researchers used modeling techniques to create a high-resolution map, revealing disease distribution.
"The Ebola epidemic is one of the worst public health crisis in recent memory causing tens of thousands of people to become critically ill and thousands more to die. It has also caused severe disruption to health care services in the affected countries, including childhood vaccination [programs] - thus creating a second public health risk," said Andy Tatem, a geographer at the University of Southampton. "The disruption in recent months has led to a pool of unvaccinated children building up across West Africa - leaving them susceptible to measles and opening the door to a large increase in cases."
It is estimated that measles immunizations dropped by 75 percent in West Africa as a result of the Ebola outbreak. The data suggests that after 18 months of healthcare disruption there will be 1,129,376 children between the aged of 9 months and 5 years left unvaccinated.
"Our study shows it is crucial to have an aggressive regional vaccination [program] ready to run, as soon as the threat of Ebola begins to recede, to help counter the steep downturn in [immunization] rates. Understanding how measles is likely to spread geographically and where best to concentrate interventions will be vital to an effective response," Tatem said.
The findings were published in a recent edition of the journal Science.
