Everyone knows there's at least one No. 12 seed that defeats a No. 5 seed every year in the NCAA Tournament. In fact, three such upsets occurred in last year's event as North Dakota State, Harvard and Stephen F. Austin reached the second round.
Are the Wyoming Cowboys the most likely 12 seed to advance past the first round?
Probably not, but there's a decent case to be made for them to advance.
Wyoming is coming off a three-game win streak that delivered them the Mountain West tournament title. The quality victories came over Utah State, Boise State and San Diego State to give the Cowboys their first NCAA tournament appearance since 2002 after they struggled at the end of the regular season.
The MWC champs dropped five of their final eight games, however, they were missing leading scorer and rebounder Larry Nance Jr. for four games as he suffered from mononucleosis. The team also lost the first two games following his return while he got used to being on the floor after nearly a three-week absence. In their final five games of the season, Nance Jr. finished 36-81 (44.4%) with 89 points and 35 rebounds to lead them to a 4-1 record.
Here are some of Wyoming' notable statistics from the 2014-2015 season:
RPI - .5538 (73rd overall)
SOS - 180th overall
PPG - 61.7 (308th overall)
FG% - .462 (60th overall)
Points Allowed - 56.0 (8th overall)
Turnovers Per Game - 11.2 (49th overall)
Similarly the Northern Iowa Panthers are coming off a three-game win streak that helped them to the Missouri Valley Conference championship, their first since 2010. They finished the season as the No. 11 team in the nation, but faced only two ranked teams throughout the year (Wichita State twice). It's also their first NCAA tournament appearance since 2010, during which they defeated the No. 1 seeded Kansas Jayhawks in the second round.
Here are the Panthers' notable statistics from the 2014-2015 season:
RPI - .6153 (15th overall)
SOS - 142nd overall
PPG - 65.4 (223rd overall)
FG% - .483 (16th overall)
Points Allowed - 54.3 (4th overall)
Turnovers Per Game - 10.5 (19th overall)
Yes, Northern Iowa has the advantage - not many will deny that. But the Panthers had only four games against top 50 opponents (3-1) whereas the Cowboys had eight (5-3). Aside from RPI, Northern Iowa doesn't have that much of a statistical advantage over Wyoming, so while everyone is talking about Buffalo upsetting West Virginia, keep an eye on the Cowboys to be the No. 12 seed that advances in the East Region.
