Most NFL observers were thoroughly impressed with Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr's rookie season. Carr, who was taken with the 36th overall pick, started all 16 games last year and threw for more than 3,000 yards with 21 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. His success was considered even more impressive given the lack of offensive talent on Oakland's roster.
While most expect the Raiders to select a wide receiver with the fourth overall pick - either Alabama's Amari Cooper or West Virginia's Kevin White - ESPN Insider John McTigue believes the team should go in a different direction.
"But the projections indicate that Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota also could be available at No. 4 come April 30," McTigue wrote. "Given the option, the Raiders shouldn't look to upgrade the supporting cast for their quarterback - they should look to upgrade the quarterback."
Carr may not have had the rookie season of Andrew Luck, but he certainly inspired a little hope in this dormant franchise. Why would the Raiders go out and replace him after such a promising start?
McTigue digs into the numbers to answer that question.
"A deeper dive into Carr's numbers suggest his 2014 season left a lot to be desired, however. Carr finished the season with a 38.4 Total QBR, which ranked 28th out of 33 qualified quarterbacks. His QBR didn't rank favorable among other recent rookies, either. Of the 27 rookies to qualify since 2006 - as far back as Total QBR data goes - Carr's QBR ranks 15th, sandwiched between EJ Manuel (38.4) and Geno Smith (35.9).
"Carr's QBR suffered because of minimal gains made on his passes. He averaged a mere 5.46 yards per attempt last season, which was not only worst in the NFL last season, it was one of the worst all time."
Some of Carr's conservative passing can be attributed to a lack of help around him. No Raiders wide receiver topped the 693 yards produced by Andre Holmes. No Raiders running back out-rushed Darren McFadden's 534 yards. Carr contributed to his low totals by playing it safe on most throws, but it's incredibly difficult to succeed when no one around you is making plays. It's hard to blame Carr for not taking shots downfield on every play.
Will Carr develop further or has he shown the Raiders his ceiling? McTigue seems to think it's the latter.
"There have been 44 quarterbacks to make their first 16 NFL starts since 2006 (not including Carr), and the average difference in QBRR from their first 16 starts and their career totals is just 5.1 points."
McTigue's statistical analysis is enough to convince him that the Raiders should take a flyer on Mariota's upside instead of trying to develop Carr.
"Mariota carries the potential of a franchise quarterback, something Carr has yet to displa at either level. In college Carr logged three full seasons as Fresno State's quarterback and never posted a QBR season higher than 77.0. By comparison, Mariota's worst QBR in three seasons as Oregon's starter was 86.2."
What do you think, Raiders fans? Should Oakland select Mariota if he's there at No. 4? Or, should the team ride it out with Carr and see what the young passer has got? Let us know in the comments section below.
