Fantasy Baseball 2015: Miguel Cabrera or Clayton Kershaw With No. 3 Overall Pick? Complete Mock Draft

We all can't be given the luxury of the No. 1 overall pick and simply sit there for that one minute and thirty seconds while we watch our computer select baseball's unanimous top player, Mike Trout. There will need to be more strategy if you have another first-round draft choice.

HNGN recently conducted a fantasy baseball mock draft and we were awarded the No. 3 overall pick. Oh, the choices! Depending on what the person with the No. 2 pick does, you could end up with Andrew McCutchen. If not, you can choose between Miguel Cabrera, Clayton Kershaw, Giancarlo Stanton, Paul Goldschmidt, Jose Abreu and more.

So who do you take with that tricky No. 3 pick?

We took Miguel Cabrera. And here's why.

First off, Trout and McCutchen were taken prior to our pick, which was expected to happen. We thought about Clayton Kershaw, but our logic was that we don't want to spend a top three pick on a guy who is only going to play a maximum of 34 games, no matter how efficient he is. As a result, Cabrera was our guy, despite the fact he's been limited in spring training because of offseason surgery. We used Steamer Projections to help us make the decision.

According to the 2015 Steamer Projections for batters provided by FanGraphs.com, Cabrera is the No. 1 overall performer for the upcoming season. He's projected to bat .315/.390/.547/.937 with 89 runs scored, 29 home runs and 98 RBIs to go along with a WAR of 4.8. We figured the Steamer was the best prediction model to use because it forecasts the last three years of data and it's predicated on "how best to use historical statistics to predict future ones."

Steamer wasn't alone in these predictions. The Fans projections also put Cabrera as the No. 1 overall player. Click on the links to read more about those.

On top of being given the reassurance from Steamer and Fans, we looked at Cabrera's numbers from last season, during which he batted .313/.371/.524/.895 with 101 runs scored, 25 home runs and 109 RBIs. Sure, those numbers were down compared to his previous two MVP seasons, but he was also playing much of the season with a bum foot and ankle. That was also his first season without Prince Fielder, who was traded to the Texas Rangers after two seasons with the Tigers.

Cabrera's success is bound to continue based on the circumstances surrounding the team. Victor Martinez finished second in the AL MVP voting last season (although he's recovering from knee surgery); Ian Kinsler has another year under his belt with Detroit and should build off last year's campaign; J.D. Martinez exploded onto the scene with a breakout year and the Tigers expect that to continue; and Detroit added Yoenis Cespedes in the offseason, which will undoubtedly improve the offense.

And if you're worried about missing out on the best pitcher in the game, or having players such as Trout and McCutchen who rack up steals, take a look at our entire mock and you can see the value that runs deep in these drafts.

*Note: Yahoo! leagues have Cabrera's average draft selection at 4.1 while ESPN leagues have it at 8.0.

If you have the ability to construct a well-rounded pitching staff, you won't feel guilty about passing up on Clayton Kershaw at No. 3.

Tags

Miguel Cabrera, Clayton Kershaw, Pick