Detroit Pistons forward Greg Monroe reportedly is a lock to sign with the New York Knicks in free agency. If true, team president Phil Jackson must select D'Angelo Russell or Emmanuel Mudiay - not Jahlil Okafor or Karl-Anthony Towns - in the 2015 NBA draft.
Monroe reportedly plans to sign as a free agent after the season with New York. With Frank Isola of the New York Daily News reporting Monroe to New York is "about as a close to a done deal as you can get," the question becomes what will Jackson do in the upcoming draft.
Let's assume Monroe is a lock to sign with New York in the offseason, and let's assume New York lands the top pick in the draft. One possibility, as suggested by Isola, is New York puts together a promising frontcourt with either Okafor or Towns joining Carmelo Anthony and Monroe. Okafor will be an elite scorer and a terror in the low post, and Towns has both great upside and the makings to be an elite defender.
New York, though, must draft a point guard if signing Monroe is a sure-thing to happen.
Either center is worthy of going first overall, but circumstance dictates Jackson must select a point guard. The aforementioned frontline would look amazing on paper, but the Knicks desperately need a 1-guard and the lack of free-agent options at that position make it imperative Jackson goes with Russell or Mudiay.
There is a handful of talented point guards expected to hit the market in July, but New York has virtually no chance of signing any of them. All signs point to Rajon Rondo going to the Los Angeles Lakers and Goran Dragic re-signing with Miami Heat. The only other two notable point guards are restricted free agents Reggie Jackson and Brandon Knight, both of whom will likely have any offer sheet matched by their respective teams.
On the other hand, there are a number of frontline players expected to be available in July. Kevin Love, Al Jefferson, Brook Lopez, Tobias Harris, Andrea Bargnani, Jeff Green and Luol Deng - along with the far less likely Marc Gasol, LaMarcus Aldridge, Roy Hibbert, Paul Millsap and DeAndre Jordan - are among the frontcourt players the Knicks will likely have the chance to pursue.
By numbers alone New York has a better chance of signing a talented big man than a talented point guard in free agency. With all the top free-agent point guards seemingly spoken for, New York must use the draft to upgrade its 1-spot.
Russell and Mudiay both have the potential to be franchise-caliber point guards, and their rookie-scale contracts make them inexpensive options for the next four years. Although Okafor and Towns are arguably more talented than either of the two guards, the lack of 1-guard options in free agency and the Knicks' need to win now means Jackson - if Monroe is a done deal this summer - needs to draft a guard.
As for which guard, only time will tell. Russell and Mudiay both are expected to be top four picks, but it's impossible to predict which player is better fit for the Knicks until after the draft workouts begin.
Russell, a 19-year-old freshman, averaged 19.3 points, 5.7 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game this season with Ohio State. He has been called the most NBA-ready player of the entire draft, and he's viewed as a two-way guard with a tremendous basketball IQ and the potential to be a leader. Although Russell is a great passer, one report indicated the biggest question about him is whether he'll be better as a true point guard or as a Brandon Roy-like 2-guard who can make plays.
Mudiay is more of an enigma. The 19-year-old, who was born in Congo but went to high school in the U.S., opted to play overseas in China rather than play a year of college ball. An ankle injury limited him to only 13 games in China, and although there's not a lot of tape on him, at least two reports indicate he's a score-first guard with a game similar to Derrick Rose and John Wall, in that he's big, fast and can finish at the rim.
The draft is on June 25.
