First it was general manager Ruben Amaro's excessive demands for Cole Hamels that had many believing his trade value would be affected. Then came the left-hander's inauspicious start to the 2015 MLB season. Well, forget those two factors.
Here's what the latest rumors suggest.
ESPN Insider Buster Olney believes the seller's market for starting pitchers such as Hamels "may never fully blossom" for three reasons: offense is down while pitching has become a dominant force; a lot of other rotation options may emerge before the trade deadline; and elbow injuries have caused executives to think twice about shelling out money for starters.
For the first reason, Olney cites the 2014 starting rotation for the New York Yankees, which was without Masahiro Tanaka, CC Sabathia, Michael Pineda and Ivan Nova for much of the year. They inserted names such as Shane Greene, Chris Capuano, Chase Whitley, Brandon McCarthy, David Phelps, etc. to help maintain a starting rotation ERA of 3.77.
Teams that are in need of rotation help after injuries or poor starting pitching thus far, such as the St. Louis Cardinals, Boston Red Sox and Yankees, have a number of internal options to try out first before inheriting Hamels' remaining $96 million.
As for the second reason, Olney believes a number of solid arms will be available prior to the deadline, which could help the Los Angeles Dodgers. Those pitchers include Kyle Lohse, Matt Garza, Aaron Harang, Scott Kazmir, Mike Leake and Doug Fister. Here's why.
Lohse and Garza: The Milwaukee Brewers have the worst record (5-17) in the MLB and could start taking offers for both of these veteran right-handers, who would provide an upgrade to a number of rotations around the league and could potentially give the Brewers a nice return.
Aaron Harang: The veteran is off to an unprecedented start (2-1 with a 1.37 ERA, 0.797 WHIP and 21 strikeouts) in his first four outings and while the Phillies have trouble trading Hamels, Jonathan Papelbon, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, they could sell high early on Harang.
Scott Kazmir: It's clear the Oakland Athletics will not be able to afford the left-hander after the season, considering his 2014 campaign was his best since 2008 and his start to 2015 (2-0 with a 0.99 ERA, 0.878 WHIP and 30 strikeouts in four starts) is among the best in the MLB. Look for general manager Billy Beane to make a deal and get more value to keep the A's in contention for years to come.
Mike Leake: The right-hander has been a speculated trade candidate for a while now because he'll be a free agent after the season, and if the Reds fall behind big in the NL Central by the time July rolls around, they likely won't hesitate to get something in return for him.
Doug Fister: He'll also become a free agent at the end of the season and the Washington Nationals have a plethora of starting pitching. Yes, prospect A.J. Cole was tattooed in his MLB debut, but that won't be the last we see of him. Fellow prospect starter Lucas Giolito should be ready for the big leagues soon and Tanner Roark is still hanging out in the bullpen. If the Nats need to make a deal to fill another void on their roster (if something were to happen), Fister or Jordan Zimmermann could be made available, which would likely attract a number of clubs.
Additionally, these recent elbow injuries in recent seasons have caused pitching to be viewed as an "unreliable commodity," according to Olney, and some general managers are wary of investing a lot of money in starting pitchers because of the potential risk of losing them for a year or longer to Tommy John surgery.
If Olney is right, Amaro better work to trade Hamels before this year's deadline and settle for a reasonable deal instead of waiting for that offer of a lifetime.
