How important is the first draft pick of a new regime in the NFL? Does it set the tone for the entire tenure of the new decision makers? Can it make or break a career?
These are the questions facing New York Jets general manager Mike Maccagnan and head coach Todd Bowles, both entering their first year in their respective positions with the team. They would obviously like to hit on the No. 6 overall selection and get off to a good start, which is why it's a bit odd that ESPN NFL Draft Insider Todd McShay projects them to select Georgia running back Todd Gurley with the No. 6 overall selection.
That's not a knock against Gurley, who is a phenomenal player when healthy. But given the reduced value of running backs, Gurley's recovery from a torn ACL and the fact that the Jets finished third in rushing offense last year (142.5 yards-per-game, 4.5 YPC), it seems strange to spend such a high draft pick on a ball carrier.
"Now that Gurley is cleared from a medical standpoint, I think he's going to go high," McShay wrote in his Mock Draft 4.0. "Maybe not this high, but I do think this pick would make sense. The Jets' biggest need is at quarterback, but they won't be able to find one in this scenario, and having an elite back like Gurley would provide help for an offense that won't be getting above-average quarterback play - and new general manager Mike Maccagnan saw firsthand with Arian Foster in Houston the impact an elite running back can have. Other options for the Jets here include WR Kevin White, OL Brandon Scherff and edge rushers Randy Gregory and Vic Beasley. There was a time when I thought Gurley would last until the 20s, but I don't think that's the case anymore."
A running back has not been selected in the first round since 2012. In that draft, Trent Richardson went third overall, Doug Martin went 31st and David Wilson went 32nd. Richardson is now on his third team after both the Cleveland Browns and Indianapolis Colts gave up on him, Martin hasn't been an impact player since his rookie year and Wilson was forced to retire due to a neck injury.
None of this is to say that Gurley will be a bust. But there is inherent risk in taking a running back in the first round. Given New York's strong showing in the run game last year and their needs elsewhere, Gurley at six seems to be somewhat of a head scratcher. We'll see if Maccagnan and Bowles are willing to bet their early goodwill from fans on Gurley.
