Global warming seemingly has taken a bit of a hiatus, but global average air temperatures will make no difference in how much the planet warms by 2100, a new study claims. The study compared climate models that showed the current slowdown to model that did not demonstrate the slowdown. The researchers concluded that long-term warming predictions were unchanged across the two types of models.
"This much hyped global warming slowdown is just a distraction to the task at hand," said lead author and chief investigator with the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Matthew England, according to a press release. "This shows that the slowdown in global warming has no bearing on long-term projections - it is simply due to decadal variability. Greenhouse gases will eventually overwhelm this natural fluctuation."
For the study, researchers looked at 200 climate situations and created projections up to the year 2100. One scenario assumed greenhouse gas concentrations would increase. The second scenario assumed efforts to curb greenhouse gas emission were made, so global warming would peak at 2040 before declining.
According to the press release, under the high emissions scenario, the difference in average projected end-of-century warming between the two groups of models is less than 0.1 degree Celsius; a tiny fraction of the projected 5 degrees Celsius global warming if emissions are not curbed.
"Our research shows that while there may be short-term fluctuations in global average temperatures, long-term warming of the planet is an inevitable consequence of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations," England said, according to the press release.
The study, "Robust warming projections despite the recent hiatus," appears in the journal Nature Climate Change.
