I don't know. You don't know. The New York Yankees don't know. Medical experts can only give their best assessment at this point. Masahiro Tanaka is dealing with a right forearm strain, which is leading many to speculate Tommy John surgery could soon be on the way.
Tanaka suffered a partially torn UCL last July and, after a number of medical opinions, he decided to rehab the injury rather than undergo surgery. It's since been believed Tanaka's arm is a ticking time bomb that will inevitably suffer a significant UCL injury that will require Tommy John surgery.
Everything seemed to be fine up until Tuesday, when he began experiencing pain in his right wrist. An MRI revealed the 26-year-old has tendinitis in the wrist as well as a mild (Grade 1) strain in his forearm, which prompted the Yankees to place him on the 15-day disabled list. General manager Brian Cashman also spoke to the press on Tuesday night after the decision was made.
"We want to make sure this does not lead to more horrific problems," Cashman said at a news conference last night. "... At the very least, he will be shut down from throwing for seven to 10 days."
The MRI also showed no change in his UCL.
Doctors have yet to suggest Tommy John surgery as a primary option for the right-hander, which indicates his arm, at the moment, is healthy enough to pitch. That has been made clear through his first four starts because his velocity has not seen much of a decrease at all (he's averaging 91.1 mph on his fastball) and he's 2-1 with a 3.22 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 24 strikeouts in 22 1/3 innings. Perhaps the forearm strain is a result of Tanaka resting for much of the offseason. He only began conducting formal pitching workouts in late February and then got a late start to spring training.
Others seem to disagree.
"If Tanaka has developed a forearm strain, mild as it may be, after four starts this season, it's logical to think that the ligament tear in his elbow is a factor in some way," writes John Harper of the New York Daily News. "This is why so many teams and pitchers opt for getting Tommy John surgery rather than trying to pitch once they have been diagnosed with a ligament tear."
"Tommy John surgery has yet to be scheduled for Tanaka, but that is just a matter of time, too. It always is just a matter of time when it comes to these types of elbow injuries," added Kevin Kernan of the New York Post. "Tanaka clearly was in a state of denial Tuesday night outside the Yankees' clubhouse when he was talking about the latest arm issue that will put him on the disabled list for at least 15 days."
While many want to jump to conclusions at the onset of Tanaka's latest injury, the fact of the matter is nobody knows what will happen. What we do know is medical experts have yet to suggest Tommy John surgery as a foremost solution to his problems, and Cashman will continue to listen to those professional assessments.
"The answer to that is absolutely no regret because we are following the medical directives," Cashman said when asked if Tanaka should have gone under the knife last season. "I can't remember any time we have ever gone against doctors' orders. Like, why would we? They are the experts. We follow what they prescribe."
Tanaka is expected to miss at least a month as the team proceeds with precaution, hoping to get their ace back on the mound as soon as possible.
