Projections and predictions this far away from the 2015 season are generally pretty useless, but there is value in analyzing teams and trying to recognize certain trends. One team that is worth looking at right now is the Dallas Cowboys.
The Cowboys are a perpetual source of intrigue among NFL fans due to their storied history, bold moves and in-your-face owner/general manager Jerry Jones. However, Dallas was at risk of becoming irrelevant before last season with three 8-8 finishes in a row. While their 12-4 season and playoff victory last year helped restore some of the team's sheen, it won't mean much if they can't duplicate their success in a winnable NFC East.
ESPN and Football Outsiders project the Cowboys to finish 11-5 this season as one of the NFL's top teams.
"Last year, these projections had the Cowboys way too low, with a mean forecast of just 7-9," Aaron Schatz wrote. "This year, our projections look too extreme in the other direction. How can Dallas be the second-best team in the league despite the loss of Demarco Murray? History says that losing a top running back doesn't tend to have a strong impact on overall offensive quality. The passing game and the offensive line have much more importance in the modern NFL. The Cowboys are likely to have more injuries on offense (No. 2 in our adjusted games lost metric) but better health on defense (No. 28 in AGL) should help improve that unit to league average. (The Cowboys are also the only NFC East team that will not have to face the suspended Tom Brady)."
Is this projection realistic?
Dallas' defense will benefit greatly from the return of linebacker Sean Lee and a solid draft that saw them select versatile cornerback Byron Jones and talented pass-rusher Randy Gregory in the first two-rounds. But the real question will be how they replace Murray's elite production. Jones is betting that Dallas' offensive line is so talented that Darren McFadden and Joseph Randle will be able to put up similar numbers. However, others aren't as confident.
"...McFadden will get a chance to be that guy, but based on his career, there's no evidence he can handle that role," ESPN's Jean-Jacques Taylor wrote last month. "He has averaged fewer than 3.5 yards per carry each of the past two seasons, but Oakland has been abject on offense the past few years, so extenuating circumstances could exist."
The other part of the problem is that McFadden has played a full 16 games just once in his career. While Murray was also injury prone, he was much more effective on the field when healthy than McFadden has been in his career.
With good health on offense and improved defensive play, Dallas should still be a quality team. The post-season looks quite reachable for them. But the second-best team in the entire NFL may be a bit of a reach.
