Right now, with months still ahead of us before meaningful football, is the time for bold predictions. It just so happens that ESPN Insider KC Joyner has one cocked, locked and ready to rock.
"With the combined volume of quality pass-catchers and quarterbacks in the 2015 rookie class, it might seem that ball carriers are going to be shut out of this honor once again, but Todd Gurley should have something to say about that. Even though he could miss the start of the season due to his recovery from a torn ACL, Gurley is my pick to win the offensive rookie of the year award for the 2015 season," Joyner wrote.
Let's take a look at the reasons why Joyner's prediction is and isn't ridiculous.
Why it is: As Joyner mentioned, Gurley is still recovering from a torn ACL. He suffered the injury back in November, and it typically takes seven to nine months to heal. But recovering and thriving are two very different things.
Adrian Peterson tore his ACL on Christmas Eve in 2011 and although he played Week 1 the next year, he didn't record his first 100 yard game until Week 4. That's a full nine months until Peterson was back in peak form. Even if Gurley manages to start in Week 1, he may not return to his college form until mid-season.
Of course, he may not enjoy much success in St. Louis this year regardless of health. The Rams ranked 18th in rushing yards-per-carry average (4.1) last year thanks in large part to poor blocking up front. Their adjusted line yards rating was even worse at 3.9, according to Football Outsiders. A whopping 21 percent of St. Louis' rushes were stuffed at the line of scrimmage in 2014. Is Todd Gurley really going to be able to overcome the problems up front?
Why it isn't: I don't know if you remember this, but Todd Gurley is really good at football and he is really, really fast. I'll let Joyner handle this one.
"According to ESPN Stats & Information, last season Gurley led all Power 5 running backs in percentage of rushes of 10 or more yards in carries against Power 5 teams (minimum 100 carries to qualify). His 35.6 percent mark in this category made him one of only two running backs to top the 20 percent bar (Dalvin Cook of Florida State being the other, at 21 percent). This was not an anomaly for Gurley, as he ranked sixth in this category in 2013 (19.8 percent).
"Another impressive marker for Gurley's breakaway ability is his ranking sixth in the SEC in rushes of 10 or more yards despite playing in only six games)."
Along with Jameis Winston, Melvin Gordon and Kevin White, Gurley is one of the better situations for a rookie offensive player in terms of scheme and opportunity.
But will he win the offensive rookie of the year award? We'll have to wait to find out.
