The Minnesota Timberwolves became just the fifth team with the worst record to win the NBA draft lottery. Minnesota will likely select Kentucky center Karl-Anthony Towns with the first overall pick of the 2015 NBA draft, but fans shouldn't expect a drastic turnaround next season - the Timberwolves are still a long way off from making the playoffs.
Assuming Minnesota doesn't trade its No. 1 pick, which team president Flip Saunders said he plans to keep, the Timberwolves will make history by having three first-overall picks from three consecutive drafts on their roster: Anthony Bennett from 2013, Andrew Wiggins from 2014, and the yet-to-be-determined No.1 pick of 2015. According to a number of draft experts, such as Chad Ford of ESPN and Chris Mannix of Sports Illustrated, that yet-to-be-determined pick will Towns.
"Not only is he a more complete player (than Jahlil Okafor), but I think he's a better fit. With Towns, the Wolves have the ability to form a super-team," Ford wrote Wednesday. "His versatility should allow the Wolves to play him alongside (Gorgui) Dieng - another young center they really love. And put Towns on the floor with this year's Rookie of the Year, Andrew Wiggins, Ricky Rubio running the point and other solid young prospects such as Zach LaVine, Shabazz Muhammed, Anthony Bennett and Adreian Payne and the Wolves have the best young core in the NBA."
Ford admitted some scouts see Minnesota as the only team that might take Okafor first overall, but it's hard to see Saunders passing on Towns. The 6-foot-11 big is an elite defender, he's athletic, and he can make 81 percent of his free throws, something crucial in light of how prevalent the "Hack-a-Center" strategies have been in the 2015 playoffs. Towns's overall offensive game needs work, but nobody seems to think he can't improve it. Moreover, scouts seem to believe Towns has the best upside of any player in the 2015 draft - imagine what Towns could become under the mentorship of future Hall of Famer Kevin Garnett? The sky's the limit.
While future is bright for the Timberwolves, fans would be wise to temper their expectations. Barring a catastrophe, the Timberwolves are poised to be good for a long time. But Minnesota's young and promising core will need time to mature. Given the ultra-competitive conference the Timberwolves are in, making the playoffs next season isn't in the cards.
In fact, history suggests as much. According to data from Rukkus, the teams that had the No. 1 picks over the last 10 years increased their win totals the following season by an average of only 7.31 games. To put that in perspective, the data projects Minnesota to improve from 16 wins this season to 23 wins next season - a far cry from the 45 wins the New Orleans Pelicans needed to grab the West's No. 8 seed this season.
Look for Minnesota to keep the pick and improve incrementally over the next couple seasons before reaching playoff-contention. The loss of Kevin Love may have been deflating for some Timberwolves fans, but the right pieces are now falling into place. Pieces that, with patience, should propel the franchise to greater heights than it would have ever reached with Love.
EXTRAS:
-Check out all the Rukkus draft data HERE. Some fun facts and interesting stats.
-Here's the full quote from Saunders on the possibility of trading the No. 1 pick, via ESPN:
"That's not going to happen. I'll tell you that. I shouldn't say not. You can always be swayed on certain things, but I feel that the guys that are in the top of this draft are just too good and can be long-term players."
