NBC's Cris Collinsworth has spent more than three decades in and around the NFL as a player and an analyst, so he's uniquely qualified to determine just what it takes to develop and establish a consistently winning, Super Bowl-caliber program at the professional level.
Per Collinsworth, who spoke to HNGN recently while walking the red carpet at the 2015 Sports Business Awards in Manhattan, the success of any and every NFL organization comes down to one thing - a franchise quarterback.
While that's not necessarily a revelation - there's a reason the list of the last twelve Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks includes Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers once, Ben Roethlisberger twice, Eli Manning twice and Tom Brady's name three times - it does make for interesting offseason considerations for Collinsworth.
"Ordinarily, it comes down to who has one of those seven or eight quarterbacks who we always see in the playoffs. So, is there somebody who is going to break into that category?," Collinsworth mused.
One player expected by many to make the leap from good, young passer to elite signal-caller is Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill. The former eighth-overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, just behind his more heralded peers, Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III, has shown ample promise and development during his three-year NFL career, but has yet to become a surefire face of the franchise.
Despite his not-yet-finished maturation, Tannehill was recently handed a six-year, $96 million extension - in reality a four-year, $77 million deal - by the Dolphins and owner Stephen Ross.
The real guaranteed figures, as they always tend to be these days, aren't as gargantuan as the initial numbers suggest, but there's simply no doubting it's the contract of a franchise quarterback.
Is that out of whack with his production to date or out of line with what Miami can fairly expect from Tannehill in Season 4?
Not according to Collinsworth.
"When you look around at what these guys are making and you look at 'Ok, if you don't have him, who are you going to replace him with?' - he's worth it. I mean you've got to have that position, he's right at that level of does he take the next step? But that's a tough club to break into. There's about 7 or 8 of them and if you can get into that club then you're worth whatever they'll pay you," Collinsworth said.
In three NFL seasons, Tannehill has amassed 11,252 passing yards and 63 touchdowns, but he's also thrown 42 interceptions, fumbled 15 times and accrued a career passer rating of just 84.0.
Tannehill though, operating under offensive coordinator Bill Lazor for the first time last season - Lazor brought many of the spread, up-tempo concepts of Chip Kelly's Eagles offense with him to Miami - managed career-highs in a number of statistical categories - completions (392), completion percentage (66.4), yards (4,045), touchdowns (27) and rating (92.8) while committing the fewest turnovers of his professional tenure.
Whether he can continue that progression under Lazor next year remains to be seen, but with the addition of weapons like the athletically gifted DeVante Parker - a guy Tannehill's already said he's "really excited" about - and the explosive Kenny Stills - not to mention the jettisoning of the mercurial Mike Wallace - should certainly aid his development.
If he can take another step forward in 2015, Tannehill will not only be making good on the belief the Dolphins showed in him by handing him his fat new deal, he'll also be creeping ever farther into true franchise signal-caller territory.
