The Minnesota Vikings aren't just a trendy playoff pick among fans, they're also a popular pick among NFL analysts. ESPN insider KC Joyner believes the Vikings will make the post-season this year, and it's easy to see why.
MVP-caliber running back Adrian Peterson is back with the team and ready to compete. After nearly an entire year away from football, Peterson will be playing with a chip on his shoulder and have something to prove. Head coach Mike Zimmer also added top 15 pick Trae Waynes in the NFL Draft to a secondary that already ranked in the top 10 last year. Minnesota has an opportunity to field an even better pass defense this season.
But the main reason that everyone is so high on the Vikings is second-year quarterback Teddy Bridgewater.
"Bridgewater was playing at a phenomenal level by the end of last season," Joyner wrote. "In Weeks 13-17, Bridgewater was tied for the league lead in completion percentage (72.1 percent) and was tops in vertical yards per attempt (16.5 yards on aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield).
"He also ranked 11th in Total QBR (67.1) and set a record for the highest completion percentage in NFL history for a rookie quarterback who attempted 40 or more passes in a game."
Bridgewater should see those numbers rise in 2015. The addition of receiver Mike Wallace adds a speed element that this offense did not have last year and he should be the team's top deep threat. Peterson's return will also force more defenders into the box, which means more one-on-one coverage outside. It's like the perfect storm for a quarterback's development.
"Bridgewater also had a terrific season-long showing in the bad decision rate (BDR) metric that gauges how often a quarterback makes a mental error that leads to a turnover opportunity for the opposing team," Joyner wrote. "His .5 percent BDR is a Tom Brady-in-his-prime caliber number and indicated Bridgewater made that sort of mental error once in every 200 pass attempts.
"The league-wide BDR average is usually about 2 percent (once every 50 passes) and the elite bar is 1 percent (once every 100 passes). Bridgewater had a 0.6 percent BDR against BCS-caliber conference opponents in his last year at Louisville, so this is par for the course for him, but it sure isn't par for the course for most rookie quarterbacks."
Questions still remain about Bridgewater's arm strength and durablity. But accuracy and turnovers are the two most important aspects of good quarterback play and Bridgewater excels in both areas.
"It really should not come as a big surprise that Bridgewater is coming along as quickly as he is. In college, he passed all of the Parcells Rules for drafting quarterbacks, a feat that recent history shows bodes well for a quarterback to have NFL success. That should help assuage concerns about a potential sophomore slump."
