If there is anyone who understands the value of a late 30s something quarterback relying on a strong running game, it's John Elway. That formula helped him win two Super Bowls at ages 38 and 39 and it's a strategy that he hopes will help Peyton Manning.
Manning, 39, has run a pass-first offensive scheme in nearly every season of his stellar 17 years in the NFL. It would be understandable if he was a bit hesitant to embrace a ground-and-pound approach. But relying more on a strong rushing attack could be exactly the change Denver needs to get over that Super Bowl hump.
For starters, the Broncos are stacked with arguably the deepest stable of running backs in the league. C.J. Anderson broke out last year in a big way while Montee Ball greatly improved down the stretch and Ronnie Hillman continued to display superb pass-catching ability from the position. While Anderson impressed everyone around the league in 2014, ESPN NFL Insider KC Joyner believes he could do even better this year.
"Last season, C.J. Anderson finished tied for second in the league in my good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric," Joyner wrote. "This statistic gauges how productive a ball carrier is when opposing teams don't disrupt a rush attempt. GBYPA is a good indicator of a running back's ceiling, so Anderson - just 186 carries into his career - has the look of a stud.
"The only back to do better than Anderson's 9.9-yard GBYPA mark was Baltimore running back Justin Forsett (11.4). Why is that significant? Forsett's offensive coordinator last season was Gary Kubiak - the same Gary Kubiak who has since taken over as Denver's head coach.
"Kubiak's biggest positive influence on Anderson could be giving the 24-year-old more open space. Last season, Denver placed 25th in my good blocking rate (GBR) metric, which measures how often an offense gives its ball carriers quality running lanes. Kubiak's Ravens tied for 12th in GBR last year, and his Houston clubs finished in the top 10 in each of his final three campaigns with the Texans. Expect Denver to show a significant GBR improvement in 2015."
Beyond the benefits of Kubiak's scheme and the talents of Anderson and others in the backfield, the Broncos would benefit from a run-first system because it would lessen the load on Manning. The second half of last season saw a dramatic decline in his play across the board. His accuracy and decision making on vertical throws (11 or more yards downfield) took a major hit and his normally immaculate play-action ability suffered as well. Although Manning may still have the quickest release in the game, it's clear that other aspects of his play have weakened.
"If Manning goes all-in on this approach, it would give him better passing opportunities and help keep him healthy late into the season," Joyner wrote. "If that happens, it should lead Denver, possibly the most talented team in the AFC, to another Super Bowl berth - and give Manning a chance to go out on top, just as Elway did."
