Scientists have warned rare but serious "Grey Swan" hurricanes could pose a major threat to coastal cities across the globe.
A team of researchers used a computer model to reveal many cities not considered to be threatened by major hurricanes may be devastated by these events in the future, Princeton University reported. The hurricanes were nicknamed "Grey Swans" in comparison with "Black Swans," which are truly unpredictable weather events that have a major impact. Grey Swans on the other hand are highly unlinkely, but can be predicted with a small degree of confidence.
"We are considering extreme cases," said Ning Lin, an assistant professor of civil and environmental engineering at Princeton. "These are relevant for policy making and planning, especially for critical infrastructure and nuclear power plants."
The findings showed these types of storms could cause major storm surge waters in Tampa, Florida.; Cairns, Australia; and Dubai, United Arab Emirates. The researchers were able to estimate the risk of this occurring by odds of 1 in 10,000 in an average year, under current climate conditions.
To make their findings, the team logged Tampa Bay area climate data from between 1980 and 2005 into their climate model and ran 7,000 simulated hurricanes in the region. They predicted that although it is highly unlikely, a Grey Swan storm could caused storm surge flood waters of up to 18 feet to the Tampa Bay area.
"With climate change, these probabilities can increase significantly over the 21st century," the researchers concluded.
The findings were published in a recent edition of the journal Nature Climate Change.
