When Green Bay Packers wide receiver Jordy Nelson tore his ACL in the preseason, it was naturally assumed that Randall Cobb would see a bump in production as the nominal No. 1 pass-catcher on the team. Through the first three weeks of the season, that notion was proving accurate as Cobb racked up 48 standard fantasy points in that span. However, the speedster is averaging just three fantasy points per game since Week 4 and has failed to top 44 yards or find the endzone in that time. The trend is worrisome to say the least for fantasy owners.
But will it continue? Yes and no.
The Packers face a mix of solid to not-so-great pass defenses over the second half of the season, including a handful of good to beatable cornerbacks. Given the wide range of defenses he will be facing, the wide receiver may be a feast-or-famine type player the rest of the way.
"Since Green Bay faces teams with at least one red-rated cornerback (red indicating a highly unfavorable coverage matchup) in six of its last nine games, Cobb could be held in check on more than a few occasions if those cornerbacks are moved to follow him," ESPN NFL Insider KC Joyner wrote.
"The good news is that in six of the next seven weeks, Green Bay faces teams that have at least one, and in some cases two, green-rated cornerback. The Packers' brain trust will aim to do all it can to get Cobb lined up against these coverage liabilities as often as possible. If those efforts are successful, it should mean double-digit point potential for Cobb.
"What this all means for fantasy owners is that Cobb could be the most boom-or-bust point scorer in fantasy football the rest of the season."
Cobb is averaging eight targets per game, which puts him around 30th in the league. This may be because quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who has only topped 255 passing yards once all season, is throwing the ball just 29 times per game. Overall, Rodgers ranks just 27th in the league in pass attempts. The lack of volume is obviously hurting Cobb's fantasy value, yet the Packers are 6-1. As of now, there's no reason for Green Bay to get pass-happy.
Fantasy owners may want to resign themselves to the fact that Cobb just isn't a WR1 this year, though his production should improve over the next few games.
