That feeling you get when everyone in your lineup goes off in the same week...
Oh yeah, you know what I'm talking about.
But how do you actually make that happen? Everyone has different approaches to the inexact science that is fantasy football. Me? I'm a numbers guy. I like to look at recent trends and examine the probability of an outcome. Sure, Darren Sproles could take a punt return to the house in any given week. But is that something you should bank on?
I think you minimize risk by playing the numbers game. An expected outcome - say, Aaron Rodgers torching a helpless secondary - may not always come to fruition, but it will more times than not. That's how I approach my lineups every week.
As always, here are a few players I'm hot on this week and a few I am cold on.
HOT
QB: Eli Manning
Back in the offseason, some (read: me) were hyping up the Giants QB as a potential top five fantasy option at the position. He currently sits at No. 4. Take that, SATs, turns out I can get something right.
But I digress.
Manning has thrown double digit touchdowns in six of eight games this year and, as you may have heard, threw for six scores last week against the New Orleans Saints. He'll also be going against a Tampa Bay pass defense this week that ranks 31st in passing touchdowns (17) and completion percentage (71.1), 27th in yards per attempt (7.9) and dead last in passer rating (111.5). Overall, opposing QBs are hanging 19.7 fantasy points per game against the Bucs, third-highest mark in the league.
Manning will be the (wait for it) Man this week...Anyone? No? I'll just stop talking.
RB: Jeremy Hill
Yes, I know he's been a disappointment for the most part and has lost touches to Giovani Bernard. But he's still the lead back in Cincinnati and the workload numbers back that up. In Week 8, Hill received 15 carries and one target to Bernard's one rushing attempt and three targets. Though both players were on the field for 32 snaps, Hill remains the early down and goal line back. That alone helps his value but what really puts him over the edge this week is the matchup.
The Cleveland Browns have allowed a 100-yard rusher in five of their eight games (and one 98-yard rusher) and at least one score on the ground in four outings. Opposing RBs are averaging 27 carries, 130 rushing yards and .75 TDs per game against the Browns this year. Don't give up on Hill just yet.
WR: Odell Beckham Jr.
As the saying goes, the grass is always greener...Wait, that's not right.
The rolling stone gathers...No, not that one either.
Oh yeah, here it is: Just because it's obvious doesn't mean it isn't true.
Remember what I said about Manning? It goes double for ODB. Tampa Bay has already allowed 11 receiving touchdowns and the fifth-most fantasy points to WRs overall this season. Don't get cute; start your studs.
TE: Gary Barnidge
Last year I went to Las Vegas and was introduced to the game known as Craps. I was immediately hooked and during my dice-throwing bender, I learned a very valuable lesson: ride the hot hand.
Right now, Barnidge is one of the hottest hands in fantasy football. He's caught at least one touchdown or topped 100 yards in each of his last six games. Let it ride.
COLD
QB: Andrew Luck
You probably don't have a better option in season-long fantasy, but I'm staying far away from Luck in Daily leagues. For starters, he sits 20th at the position with just 105 standard fantasy points. That's behind guys like Brian Hoyer and Josh McCown. He's also playing behind a porous offensive line and dealing with rib and ankle issues.
But most of all, the Denver Broncos defense has become fantasy kryptonite. They just limited Aaron freaking Rodgers to 77 total passing yards (!) last week and are surrendering a league low 7.6 fantasy points to opposing QBs. No thank you.
RB: Matt Jones and Alfred Morris
Are the Washington Redskins the most frustrating time share in all of football? No one expected Morris to be a world beater, but his customary 1,000 rushing yards and 6-8 touchdowns would have been nice. Instead, his starting gig was usurped by third-round rookie Matt Jones who had one good game back in Week 2 and has failed to recapture the same magic ever since.
The Redskins' struggles on the ground aren't all on the running backs; Washington's offensive line has been reshuffled due to injuries this year. But I'm looking elsewhere against a New England Patriots team that ranks seventh in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (96.7), ninth in rushing touchdowns (3) and have only allowed two backs to eclipse 89 rushing yards all year.
WR: Randall Cobb
Jordy Nelson's season-ending injury in the preseason rippled through Green Bay's offense this year. I know the Packers are 6-1, but Rodgers has topped 255 passing yards just twice all season. Cobb's production started nicely but has plummeted since Week 4.
Do you think that is going to change against Carolina's breakout star cornerback Josh Norman? The Panthers have allowed just one pass-catcher to exceed 100-yards receiving in their last three games and that was Jimmy Graham.
Carolina is due for a loss and it could well come against the talented Packers, but I think Cobb will be kept quiet for the most part.
TE: Jason Witten
Without Tony Romo, life can be pretty tough for Cowboys pass-catchers. Not that I'm complaining; I'm a long-suffering Redskins fan.
But I also play fair when it comes to fantasy. Witten hasn't seen the endzone since Week 1 and is averaging just 44 yards per game over the last month. Making matters worse, the Philadelphia Eagles are allowing a league-low 3.6 fantasy points to opposing tight ends this year. That's tough to overcome with Matt Cassel working as a double agent to subvert any progress the Cowboys may make elsewhere.
