Entering the 2015 season, Washington Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins had posted one of the worst interception rates in NFL history. Midway through this year, it didn't appear as if that was going to change as he had thrown eight picks in his first six games. But over the last 10 games, Cousins cut down on the turnovers and helped lead the Redskins to an NFC East-winning record of 9-7. Washington is now headed to the playoffs for just the sixth time since 1992. Cousins' breakout couldn't have come at a better time as his rookie deal will officially be up once the post-season ends.
"Finishing among the NFL's top six in both passer rating (101.6) and Total QBR (70.1) while winning the NFC East will go down as one of the most timely breakout performances in the history of free agency," ESPN NFL Insider Mike Sando wrote. "Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson and Carson Palmer are the only other players over the past five seasons to score 100 or higher in passer rating and 70 or higher in QBR over a 16-start season. Cousins led the NFL in completion percentage, as well."
To keep Cousins, the Redskins could place the franchise tag on him for one season, though that cost teams $18.51 million this past season. That figure may rise to around $20 million for 2016. If the Skins opt for a longer-term deal, former Washington QB Joe Theisman has an idea of what they should offer.
"If you don't sign Kirk Cousins, and let's say he goes some place else, where are we as a football team after having invested the three years in him - four years, really - and this particular season that he has had?" Theisman told CBS DC. "You have to sign him and the number's between $80 [million] and $100 million. You can't get around it; that's where the numbers are. His performance dictates it, he's stayed healthy."
Cousins threw for a Redskins record 4,166 yards with 29 touchdowns against 11 interceptions while completing 69.8 percent of his passes. He also rushed for five scores. Perhaps the closest parallel to Cousins is Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton, who threw for 3,398 yards with 19 TDs and 17 INTs last year before signing a six-year deal worth $96 million last offseason. Though Cousins' numbers are better, Dalton had the advantage of stringing together four consecutive impressive seasons (and four-straight playoff appearances), whereas Cousins only really hit his stride over the second half of this season.
Though it would be expensive, Washington's best bet may be to tag Cousins and give him one more season to prove that he's the real deal before signing him long-term. They would have to eat a high price tag, but it would help them avoid a worst case scenario (think Ryan Fitzpatrick in Buffalo). If that strategy is not on the table in DC, general manager Scot McCloughan should try his hardest to include a team opt-out clause after two to three years in case Cousins comes back down to earth.
Then again, maybe this is the real version of Cousins. Who knows?
