The latter half of Tom Brady's career has seen him dominate New England's offense in a way few other quarterbacks can. Naturally, this hasn't left much room for a Patriots running back to grab the spotlight, especially in fantasy football. But as more and more teams starting using running back by committee approaches and passing offenses continue to shatter records, third-down backs are becoming more valuable than ever. The beneficiary of this trend on the Patriots in 2015 was Dion Lewis before an injury ended his promising season.
Patriots fans looking for under-the-radar fantasy contributors in 2016 should consider snatching Lewis up in the later rounds.
"Lewis clearly emerged as a fantasy asset in 2015, but he missed too much action (nine games) for it to truly constitute a breakout season," ESPN's Mike Clay wrote. "During the seven weeks he was active, Lewis accrued 234 yards on 49 carries and 388 yards on 46 targets. In that time, he scored four touchdowns and sat second among running backs in fantasy points in PPR (fourth in non-PPR). New England figured to be in the market for an early-down bruiser, but Lewis signed a contract extension during the season, which all but assures him a significant role on passing downs. His durability remains a major concern, but Lewis is only 25 years old and will be operating in one of the league's top offenses. He belongs in the RB2 conversation and has RB1 upside in PPR."
If you extend Lewis' numbers across a full 16-game schedule, you get 534 rushing yards on 112 carries (4.8), 886 receiving yards on 82 targets and nine total touchdowns. That puts him around Doug Martin territory in terms of raw numbers. As Clay mentioned, that merits RB2 consideration with a RB1 ceiling in PPR leagues if he can manage to say healthy.
However, Bill Belichick is notorious for playing musical chairs with his running backs. One week it could be Lewis, and another it could be New England's latest waiver wire pick up. You just never know which attaches a lot of risk to Lewis as a fantasy prospect.
