The final poll out of Iowa before Monday's first-in-the-nation caucuses shows Republican contender Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton barely ahead of their respective fields.
In the Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Iowa Poll, considered the gold standard of Iowa polling, Trump leads Texas Sen. Ted Cruz by five percentage points, 28 percent to 23 percent. If evangelicals turn out in similar numbers as in past years, Trump's lead shrinks to one percent, notes poll director J. Ann Selzer.
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio came in third with 15 percent, followed by retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson with 10 percent and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul with five percent. All other GOP candidates polled less than five percent. Trump's support has risen six percent from early January, while Cruz is down two percent and Rubio is up three percent.
On the Democratic side, Clinton leads Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders by three points, 45 percent to 42 percent. Former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley came in with three percent. Clinton is up three percent from the last poll, Sanders is up two percent and O'Malley dropped one percent.
Trump's backers are the most solidified in their support, with 71 percent saying that they are committed to voting for the real estate mogul. That's compared to 61 percent of Cruz's supporters and 47 percent of Rubio's who say the same.
Trump's Achilles heel was his support of eminent domain, which worried 60 percent of respondents, as well as his past statements in favor of abortion rights, which bothered 56 percent. He also does poorly with women, with a 40 percent positive to 58 percent negative split.
Cruz was voted as the most knowledgeable and experienced in the race, as well as the most respected by leaders of countries friendly to the U.S.
One of the best signs for Clinton is that 83 percent of her supporters say that they have made up their mind, while only 69 percent of Sanders' supporters said the same. Clinton also won among Democrats who said they are definitely caucusing, and Sanders won among those who said that they will most likely caucus. Sanders' success will likely be determined by how many of O'Malley's supporters and independents he can win over.
The poll was conducted among 602 likely Republican and Democratic caucus-goers from Jan. 26-29 and has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.
Iowa polls are often unreliable, but Selzer has an impressive polling track record dating back to 1988. She was the only pollster to predict the order of the Democratic candidates in 2004, and her final poll in 2008 accurately predicted that a surge of first-time voters would help Barack Obama win. In 2012, she was one of the few to foresee the rise of former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, according to Politico.
