The Chicago Cubs and Jake Arrieta both said today they've been discussing a long-term contract extension, but Arrieta expressed that the Cubs' offer wasn't something he was looking for and president of baseball operations Theo Epstein added that there's no pressure to get a deal completed soon.
Arrieta won the NL Cy Young in 2015 and quickly established himself as one of the best starters in baseball, but Epstein is right - there is no urgency to get the right-hander under a long-term contract at this juncture. The Cubs control him for two more seasons, albeit at a costly price, but they will undoubtedly have him under contract throughout part of his prime.
He earned $10.7 million in his second year of arbitration eligibility, which was a record for a pitcher with four years of MLB service time.
The 30-year-old went 22-6 with a 1.77 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and 236 strikeouts in 33 starts (229 innings), which was eons better than any other campaign in his six-year MLB career. However, it was the first time Arrieta made over 25 starts, pitched more than 156-2/3 innings, won more than 10 games, struck out more than 167 batters, and threw more than one complete game shutout. In fact, his innings increase was fairly alarming since he threw 229 during the regular season and an additional 19-2/3 in the postseason, bringing his grand total to 248-2/3, which is 92 innings more than his previous career-high in a season.
It remains to be seen if that will be any trouble for his arm or health, but it was clear he was fatigued at the end of last season.
All in all, here's why the Cubs shouldn't be in a rush to ink Arrieta to a long-term contract extension at this very moment:
Scott Boras
Arrieta's agent is not the easiest guy to negotiate with, to say the least. Boras typically doesn't negotiate extensions for his clients before they hit free agency, which could mean he's pressing hard for an enormous deal since he's making an exception. Secondly, Arrieta's Cy Young season is just about the best bargaining chip in the world for Boras, so the Cubs may want to hold off and see how the pitcher performs in 2016. With just two productive seasons under his belt at the age of 30, the Cubs might want to do some further evaluating before they commit many years and dollars to the newfound ace.
The baseball world has been infatuated with contract extensions in recent seasons, but teams can and should use the current system to their advantage. They have six years of control over their players and until that changes (if it does) under the next collective bargaining agreement, there is no need to pay players more or extend them prematurely.
I'm all for the players getting paid, and I support it over teams exercising their power over the players, but some cases prove to be outliers and I feel Arrieta's is one of them. He rightfully received his large raise this offseason and will need to play through his arbitration years to earn himself a long-term deal.
Arbitration
Say what you want about arbitration, but those who outperform their salary WILL get paid the following season. Arrieta is a prime example. He made $3.63 million in 2015 and then got that number up to $10.7 million in 2016. I'd say $7 million is a solid raise, especially if you're not an investment banker on Wall Street.
The bottom line is that Arrieta is not going to be disgruntled over the next two seasons about his pay, unlike pitchers such as Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole, both of whom are currently playing for somewhere around the league minimum because they have yet to accumulate the required amount of service time. This means the Cubs needn't worry about Arrieta's happiness or attitude. He'll take home $10.7 million this year and he's surely fine with that.
Health/Performance
Arrieta has thrown 795-1/3 innings throughout his six-year MLB career (not including the postseason). That's almost like stumbling upon a '69 Pontiac GTO with 20,000 miles on it (well, not really, but you get what I'm saying).
However, as previously mentioned, the right-hander exceeded previous career-high in innings by 92. That's an enormous jump, and in this day and age, it could very well have a negative impact on the arm. Overuse in any sense is something to keep an eye on, so the Cubs should wait and see how the next two seasons go for Arrieta. It's not out of the realm of possibility that he takes a step back next season or even the season after. In 2016 he'll be tasked with managing his status as an elite starter on top of his stamina and health. What if the stress on his arm from last season was too much and he gets injured?
I'm a huge Arrieta fan and I think he's well-positioned to become an elite pitcher (on a consistent basis), but it's just not good business to give a lucrative seven-year contract to a 30-year-old who has logged just two good seasons (a total of 58 starts).
Chicago doesn't need to give in to any demands right now. Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer were the ones that plucked Arrieta out of a bad situation in Baltimore and instead exposed him to an environment and coaching staff that was ultimately more conducive to his success.
Now they should have the luxury of seeing how that investment pans out rather than being pressured into making a colossal commitment in which a number of factors could go against them. The deal needs to be right for both sides, and at this point there may not be enough evidence to make that happen.
Patience is a virtue.
