Americans like to gamble? Could've fooled me.
The American Gaming Association announced in a press release on Monday that wagering on the 2016 NCAA Tournament is expected to reach $9.2 billion in the United States. Talk about March Madness.
According to the AGA's estimations, that $9.2-billion figure is expected to comprise of brackets filled out in office pools, wagers in Nevada sports books, wagers on illicit offshore sits and wagers placed with illegal bookies. Additionally, the AGA believes only $262 million of that gambling will be legal, which continues to portray the popularity of sports betting in the U.S.
"Americans' passion for betting fuels the unmatched popularity of March Madness," said Geoff Freeman, AGA president and CEO, in the press release. "Betting increasingly drives sports fans - and even casual observers - to invest in the tournament, offering further evidence that sports betting is the new national pastime."
Americans will fill out more than 70 million brackets this year and, according to last year's data, the average bet per bracket was $29, which comes out to $2.03 billion of wagers on brackets.
While the brackets get the most attention during March Madness, let's not forget about the sports wagering that goes on during this time of the NCAA basketball season. This is yet another big time of the year for Vegas sportsbooks, as they're expected to record $240 million in wagers throughout the NCAA Tournament.
So what are some good bets to place in the first round of this year's big dance? Here are our top three bets that are likely to hit early on this week.
No. 1 Kansas (-26) vs. No. 16 Austin Peay
It took a magical late run for Austin Peay to get its bid into the NCAA Tournament, and it will abruptly end on Thursday. The Governors won their last six games, including their run in the Ohio Valley Conference tournament. Their 7-9 conference record was among the bottom half of the standings, but that good old tournament win is what makes March so interesting.
However, Peay's bid won't be interesting at all. It'll face the No. 1 overall seed Kansas in the first round and its 279th-ranked defense (76 points allowed per game) will be no match for the Jayhawks, who average 81.6 points per game (16th in NCAA).
Kansas is 21-11 against the spread this year after finishing atop the most competitive conference in the NCAA. It's 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games and is 2-2 as a double-digit favorite over that span. The Jayhawks failed to cover when they were -11 against Iowa State and -13.5 against Texas Tech, both of which are understandable.
Peay is 13-15-1 ATS this season and 7-3 in its last 10 games as well, but its RPI is no match against Kansas. The Jayhawks have formidable double-digit wins over Baylor (28-point victory), West Virginia (two 10-point wins) and Texas (30-point triumph). They've stomped out plenty more inferior opponents as well, so Peay will be in trouble.
No. 11 Wichita State (-3.5) over No. 11 Vanderbilt
This spread varies all over the place, but Vanderbilt probably shouldn't even be in the tournament after its relatively mediocre season and less-than-stellar RPI (60th in NCAA), but it'll be in one of the play-in games tonight.
The Commodores will face the Wichita State Shockers, who sport the 50th overall RPI thanks to a tough non-conference schedule to start the year. They faced Utah, Seton Hall, Iowa, UNLV, USC and Tulsa, all of whom are tournament teams with the exception of UNLV. The Shockers also boast the No. 1 overall defense in the NCAA with 59.3 points allowed per game.
Both teams were in weak conferences, but the edge goes to Wichita, which is 18-12 ATS this season (18-11 as the favorite) compared to the Commodores' 15-15 record (3-6 as underdog). Vanderbilt averages 76.8 points per game, but that number dips to 67.9 in its 13 losses. Additionally, its last NCAA Tournament appearance came in 2012 (the Commodores were bounced in the second round) while Wichita State will make its fifth consecutive appearance this year and carries a 7-4 record over that span.
The experience of Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet should get the job done as well.
No. 12 Yale (5.5) to cover against No. 5 Baylor
This very well could be a legitimate 12-5 upset, but I won't go as far to say that until I fill out my bracket. The Ivy League champs head into the NCAA Tournament with the No. 44 overall RPI, which is impressive for a No. 12 seed. Baylor has the 25th-best RPI, but its just 5-11 against top-50 opponents.
Yale is only 1-4 in that category, but the Bulldogs are a good rebounding and defensive team (top 20 in both categories) and also challenged themselves with their non-conference schedule (Duke, SMU, USC).
My key factor here is that Baylor is not a good tournament team, as it proved last year with a first-round loss to No. 14 seed Georgia State. It's also only 7-10-1 ATS as a favorite and 12-14-1 overall. Yale is 11-6-2, but it has a weak 1-3-1 ATS record as an underdog.
Nonetheless, Baylor's inconsistent play will be susceptible to Yale's balanced squad (one loss in its last 18 games) and momentum heading into the big dance.
