The Sweet 16 begins on Thursday night and kicks off with Villanova vs. Miami, but the two No. 1 seeds will take part in the later games. The Kansas Jayhawks (32-4) are one of them, as they'll square off against the Maryland Terrapins (27-8) at 9:40 p.m. ET.
Kansas is coming off a win against the Connecticut Huskies, but it's been the Terps who had the easier road to the Sweet 16. Maryland faced No. 12 seed South Dakota State in the first round and then No. 13 seed Hawaii in the second round after the Rainbow Warriors pulled off a big upset against California.
Maryland didn't dominate either game and now they face their biggest test in the No. 1 overall seeded Jayhawks, who have just four losses on the season.
Kansas enters the matchup as six-point favorites and Maryland hasn't been a six-point underdog all year. The Terps' largest spread in that position was +5.5 against Michigan State in the Big 10 Tournament semifinal, which they covered.
Overall, Maryland has not been great against the spread (16-17-1), including 1-3-1 as an underdog. They're 4-5-1 ATS in their last 10 games and are 0-2-1 as an away underdog as well.
On the other hand, Kansas has been a gambler's dream this season. The Jayhawks are 23-11 ATS and 22-10 as a favorite. They're 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games and have covered their last three against West Virginia, Connecticut and Austin Peay. The only spreads they failed to cover over that span were all pretty generous figures: -7 against Baylor, -11 against Iowa State and -13.5 at Texas Tech.
As the favorite with the spread between five and eight points, the Jayhawks are 7-2 ATS in those games and that bodes well for them tonight since they've allowed an average of just 65.5 points in their last 10 games (against talented offensive opponents).
The Terps' last impressive win came in early February against Purdue, so unless they play flawless basketball tonight they probably don't have a chance against Bill Self's squad, which has won 16 straight games, including eight against ranked opponents.
Maryland hasn't faced tough competition on a regular basis because the Big 10's depth is weak beyond its top teams, so expect Kansas to take advantage in this one, assuming they continue playing the way they've been.
Suggested Bets: KU -3.5 for first half; KU -6 for game; OVER @ 144
Prediction: Kansas 77, Maryland 69
