Now that the spreads are moving less and less, it's time to make our straight up and against the spread picks for the first day of the 2016 NCAA Tournament. Although March Madness started earlier this month, the festivities are about to be in full force.
There are 16 matchups today and we'll be making our picks for all of them. I'll be taking care of half of them, but check out the sports section of the site for the other half.
We begin with the No. 1 overall seed, the Kansas Jayhawks.
No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 16 Austin Peay (4:00 p.m. ET on TNT)
The Jayhawks (30-4) are 26-point favorites in this matchup as the Austin Peay Governors (18-17) used a late-season run in the Ohio Valley Tournament to clinch a berth in the big dance. Unfortunately, this is perhaps the most unevenly matched game of every first-round contest.
Kansas is 21-11 against the spread this year and it's won 14 straight by an average of 12.4 points.
The Jayhawks are obviously an easy pick for the bracket, but I'd say they'll cover that 26-point spread as well.
No. 8 Texas Tech vs. No. 9 Butler (12:40 p.m. ET on TRUTV)
The Red Raiders had themselves a pretty nice season in the competitive Big 12 Conference, which is tops in the nation. They finished 19-12 (9-9 in the Big 12), but ended their season on a bad note with a loss to TCU in the Big 12 Tournament. They enter the NCAA Tournament as four-point underdogs to Butler.
The Bulldogs had a similar end to their campaign with a first-round loss to Providence in the Big East Tourney. Butler finished 21-9 on the season and managed a few quality wins, but its reliance on outside shooting is going to be a big factor in today's matchup.
I like Texas Tech to win this one (and thus cover the four-point spread).
No. 5 Purdue vs. No. 12 Arkansas-Little Rock (4:30 p.m. ET on TBS)
Purdue's size should get them far in this tournament and the Boilermakers (26-8) enter today's game as nine-point favorites against the Trojans (29-4). These No. 5 vs. No. 12 seeds are always tricky, and while Purdue clearly has the edge here, we can't overlook an Arkansas-Little Rock team that had only four losses on the year and was 19-10 against the spread (including 5-1 as an underdog).
Purdue should advance to the second round, but don't expect them to roll over the Trojans, who should cover that nine-point spread.
No. 3 Miami vs. No. 14 Buffalo
This is Buffalo's second consecutive appearance in the NCAA Tournament. Last year the Bulls (20-14) were a No. 12 seed and had to face No. 5 West Virginia. They fell 68-62, but they kept it close after a number of analysts predicted them pulling off the upset.
This time around they'll face the Hurricanes (25-7), who have dropped two of their last three. However, Miami competed in the tough ACC all year and it will likely get past Buffalo, but the 14-point spread might be too much to overcome.
The Bulls are 17-13-2 ATS this year and the Hurricanes are 18-12-1. It's a close call, but I'd take Buffalo +14.
No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 16 Florida Gulf Coast (7:20 p.m. ET on TBS)
Everyone keeps blabbering about FGCU (21-13) becoming the first No. 16 seed to upset a No. 1 seed. That simply won't happen against the Tar Heels (28-6), who have been playing their best basketball all year. FGCU thrashed a bad Farleigh Dickinson team and now all of a sudden it's going to make history? I think not.
But, they probably will cover the 22-point spread, as UNC is just 16-17-1 ATS all year.
North Carolina advances, but the Eagles won't get blown out by more than 22.
No. 3 Utah vs. No. 14 Fresno State (7:27 p.m. ET on TRUTV)
I think this is yet another matchup where the underdog will cover. Utah (26-8) was embarrassed by Oregon in the Pac-12 Tournament final and it got lucky against California in the semifinal as the Golden Bears somehow allowed the Utes to go coast-to-coast at the end of regulation to tie the game (the Utes then won in OT).
Fresno State (25-9) has won 11 of its last 12 and played some Pac-12 opponents (Oregon and Arizona) tough earlier in the year. It's also 18-11 ATS, while Utah is just 16-15-1. The Bulldogs are 9-4 ATS as underdogs and the Utes are 12-10-1 as favorites.
Another high spread here with Fresno State getting nine. I'll take Utah straight up in this, but Fresno State should cover.
No. 4 Kentucky vs. No. 13 Stony Brook (9:40 p.m. ET on CBS)
The Wildcats (26-8) are playing well ever since their loss to Florida at the beginning of the month. They had a scare against Georgia in the first half over the weekend and Texas A&M took them to overtime, but John Calipari's team is likely motivated after getting screwed in the seeding.
On the other hand, Stony Brook (26-6) had a pretty soft schedule this year and there's a reason they come into today as 13.5-point underdogs: the Seawolves are 0-5-1 ATS this year and 0-2 as an underdog. Kentucky is 18-16 ATS (7-3 in their last 10 games) and 18-15 as the favorite.
I like Kentucky to cover in a rout later tonight.
No. 6 Seton Hall vs. No. 11 Gonzaga (9:57 p.m. ET on TRUTV)
Many might argue Seton Hall (25-8) got hosed with its seeding as well, especially after taking down Xavier and Villanova en route to their Big East Tournament victory. The Pirates also got the short end of the stick in their first-round matchup against Gonzaga (26-7).
They're also 1.5-point underdogs today. Riddle me that.
The Bulldogs also won their conference tournament and enter tonight on a five-game winning streak. However, they haven't played in nine days now and that could have an effect on their performance.
Gonzaga is also just 15-15-1 ATS, including a 13-14-1 record as the favorite, while the Pirates are 23-9 ATS and 12-2 as the underdog.
LET'S GO HALL. I like the Big East champs to win outright, but if you're betting, take the 1.5 points as insurance in case some crazy nonsense happens.
