The final game of Thursday's Sweet 16 lineup will feature the Oregon Ducks (30-6) and Duke Blue Devils (25-10) in what could be the most interesting matchup of the night. Duke will look to slow Oregon on their 10-game winning streak.
The Blue Devils have won just two in a row and have not been good against the spread lately, which has drastically affected their overall ATS record for the year. Duke is 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 games, bringing them to 14-18-2 on the year. They're also 1-4-1 as the underdog, which is not a good sign heading into tonight's Sweet 16 game.
The Ducks are 20-13 ATS and 16-11 as a favorite. They're 6-4 ATS over their last 10, and the four games that they didn't cover were fairly big spreads: -7 against St. Joe's, -8 against Washington, -18.5 against Washington State and -12 against Oregon State.
Duke has had similar struggles with big spreads, as they were -10 against UNC Wilmington, -7.5 against NC State and -16 against Wake Forest recently. However, their underdog spreads were small (+2.5 against UNC and +1 against Pittsburgh), so perhaps their record as an underdog ATS isn't all that alarming.
Then again, they're just +3 against the Ducks tonight, and the over/under is a whopping 157.
For the Blue Devils, they've had 18 games in which the over/under was 151 or more, and the over covered 11 times, including six times when it was 155 or more (Duke won five of those games outright).
As for Oregon, they've had 11 games in which the over/under was 151 or more, and the over covered just three times. Oregon was 7-1 in which the under covered in those matchups.
This brings us to our prediction of Duke winning and the over covering. The Blue Devils have only failed to cover small underdog spreads this year, but this is the NCAA Tournament, which is a totally different atmosphere.
Oregon's RPI was second in the nation and Duke's was 19th, but look at the Pac-12 in the NCAA Tournament against the ACC - experience rules all. The Pac-12 has gotten crushed (Cal, Utah, Arizona, USC, Oregon State and Colorado eliminated in the first and second rounds), and Oregon is the only one remaining in the big dance. The ACC has Duke, Miami, UNC, Syracuse, Notre Dame and Virginia left.
This should be an indicator of what's to come tonight.
Suggested Bets: Oregon -1.5 for first half; Duke +3 for game; Duke money line for game; and over @ 157
Prediction: Duke 81, Oregon 79
