The No. 1 seed Virginia Cavaliers (28-7) will take on the Iowa State Cyclones (28-7) in Friday's first Sweet 16 matchup. Both teams clearly face their toughest test of the 2016 NCAA Tournament in an intriguing ACC vs. Big 12 matchup.
Virginia enters tonight's game as a six-point favorite after defeating Butler in the second round. Iowa State has only been an underdog seven times this season, and two of those games were against Kansas and Oklahoma. Virginia has also been a favorite for an overwhelming majority of the season.
The Cavaliers are 18-14-1 against the spread, including 16-12-1 as a favorite. They're 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games as well, including 2-0 in the NCAA Tournament. The only games they failed to cover or push were road matchups against North Carolina and Miami (both of which they were underdogs).
Iowa State has had success ATS this year as well. The Cyclones are 17-13-1 in that department and 4-3 as an underdog with ATS wins against Cincinnati (+5), Oklahoma (+7.5 and +4) and Kansas (+11). They've covered the spread five times in their last six games, two of which they were underdogs.
The over/under in this one has been set at 141, which is tricky because it all depends on who controls the game. If Iowa State sets the pace, the over will undoubtedly cover, but it'll be the under that triumphs if Virginia sets the tone early.
Only two times this season has UVA played in games where the o/u was 140 or higher, and the record is split. On the other hand, Iowa State has seen a 140 or higher o/u in every single one of their games, with the under covering 16 times and the over hitting 14 times. Eleven of those unders hit when the figure was 150 or higher.
This is a tough game to predict since both teams play drastically different styles of basketball, so this one will more than likely be up to your gut feeling. But here are some stats to keep in mind:
Virginia is 8-1 ATS when it is 6-point favorites or less with 140 or more total points scored in four of those matchups.
Iowa State is 2-3 ATS when it is 6-point underdogs or less with 140 or more total points scored in four of those matchups.
That's not terribly revealing since it's a small sample size for Iowa State, but I'd suggest if you like Virginia, take the under as well, and if you like Iowa State, take the over as well.
Suggested Bets: Iowa State +3 for first half; Virginia -6 for game; under @ 141
Prediction: Virginia 73, Iowa State 66
