It's pretty amazing that the NFL and Tom Brady are still haggling in court over DeflateGate almost 1.5 years removed from the incident itself. The drawn-out squabble doesn't look good for either side, and it shows no signs of stopping despite the recent ruling of a federal appeals court that resulted in Brady's four-game suspension being reinstated.
Brady and the NFLPA will continue to fight this decision, but as we wait for a more concrete resolution, we might as well do something productive. Let's examine how this suspension impacts Brady's fantasy value.
The veteran QB finished the 2015 season as the second-highest scoring fantasy QB behind Cam Newton (335 points to 373). Thanks to some nifty math from ESPN, i.e. a pen a paper, we can figure out that Brady averaged 21 fantasy points per game last season. Subtract 84 points from his season total, and you get 251, good for 15th at the position behind Alex Smith. If you take out his totals from Weeks 1-5 (102 fantasy points), you get 233, one fewer than Andy Dalton at QB18.
Obviously, this bumps Brady down the pecking order, but not quite as far as you may think. The quarterback position has grown increasingly deep in fantasy over the past several years, with practically every passer posting a 4,000-yard season. Fantasy owners should not be afraid to grab Brady and pair him with a replacement-level QB for the first four games.
Some high-upside options that aren't expected to be taken within the first 10-12 picks include Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins and Joe Flacco. All three have favorable schedules early on and aren't likely to torpedo your chances. Assuming you get average production from one of them before Brady returns, you'll likely end the year with a top-seven QB season combined.
There are no sure things in football, and fantasy is certainly an inexact science. But wouldn't you rather have 12 games of Brady and QB X at a relatively low cost, rather than take a gamble on the Brock Osweilers or Teddy Bridgewaters of the world?
Brady is just too good to write off because of a four-game absence.
Follow Brandon Katz at @Great_Katzby
