Sadly, for those of us in North America, Marvel's "Captain America: Civil War" won't be arriving in theaters until May 6. However, the film is being made available in countless territories worldwide today. Though namely an American hero, Steve Rogers and his gang of do-gooders are generating as much excitement globally as they are here at home, and that could lead to some huge numbers at the box office.
"Civil War" will be available in nearly 63 percent of its total foreign territory by Friday. This includes the U.K. and Australia, though China (the second-most important market behind the U.S.) will also have to wait until May 5. According to early tracking reports, this may help push the film to $200 million by Sunday, which is a pretty staggering total.
"Avengers: Age of Ultron" opened to $212 million internationally, which means "Civil War" could actually top that number if industry insiders are lowballing the opening frame, as they did with Disney's "Zootopia" and "The Jungle Book." For another point of reference, "Captain America: The Winter Soldier" was praised for its $78 million international debut, so Marvel may have a record breaker on its hands.
In North America, "Civil War" is expected to take in around $175 million (though some are whispering that number could be even higher) in its first weekend, which again could be on the low end of the scale given the unexpected breakout success of recent Disney offerings. We have no idea how the movie will play in China, but "Age of Ultron" posted the second-biggest opening weekend of all time over there with $156 million, so anything above $100 million has to be considered a smash hit at the Mouse House.
So let's project "Civil War's" full-two week rollout to account for its staggered overseas and domestic openings. Assuming it hits the $200 million mark by the end of this weekend, the $175 million mark in North America and upwards of $100 million in China, Marvel's latest offering could conceivably be halfway to $1 billion at the worldwide box office after just two weeks in theaters. Jaw, meet floor.
Everyone knew that "Captain America: Civil War" was going to open big. But if the movie plays more like Avengers 2.5, we could be looking at the biggest film of 2016 by a wide margin.
Follow Brandon Katz at @Great_Katzby
