NBA Free Agency 2023: Who’s In? Who’s Out? Who Goes Where?

As the National Basketball Association (NBA) enters its off-season period, many sports experts and fans speculate who would stay on which team, who would go elsewhere, and who would go into free agency.

While most of the league's off-season business has been cut out for them following the NBA Draft, many still wonder about the fate of players like Damian Lillard and James Harden after requesting trades from the Portland Trail Blazers and the Philadelphia 76ers, respectively. This meant some teams were looking for an opportunity to sign either of the players into their squad.

With that said, here is an updated off-season overview of some of the teams that could still need to go overtime.

Boston Celtics

Draft: Jordan Walsh (38th overall)

Trade: Kristaps Porzingis (from Wizards)

Free Agent: Dalano Banton, Oshae Brissett

Who to watch: Jaylen Brown, Grant Williams, Damian Lillard

Brown earned All-NBA honors and is eligible to sign a five-year $288 million designated veteran extension with the Celtics after becoming one of a handful of players to average 27 points at least 50% after the All-Star break. Should he agree to remain in Boston, his contract would be the biggest ever in NBA history.

Since the NBA instituted the designated veteran extension rule called "supermax" in 2017, 11 of the 12 players who met the All-NBA criteria have signed in, with the exception of Kawhi Leonard of the San Antonio Spurs. Under supermax rules, teams are required to offer an extension for a total of six seasons (including the remainder of the player's existing contract) but not mandated to offer a first-year salary starting at 35% of the salary cap.

Williams, a restricted free agent, sits on hold as the number of teams that could present an offer has shrunk. Other than the Spurs, which could offer him $23 million, Williams could sign the maximum offer contract for a four-year $54 million contract. If the Celtics match, it would cost them an additional $40 million in projected tax penalties.

Boston's dilemma is centered around whether to have Lillard on the team without having to lose Brown, especially because they have traded Marcus Smart to Memphis.

Currently, the Celtics can include up to five first-round picks (they owe a top-1 protected pick swap to San Antonio in 2028) in a trade and have the contracts of Malcolm Brogdon, Derrick White and Robert Williams III to use as matching salary for Lillard.

Brooklyn Nets

Draft: Noah Clowney (21st overall), Dariq Whitehead (22nd overall), Jalen Wilson (51st overall)

Trade: N/A

Free Agent: Cameron Johnson, Dennis Smith Jr., Lonnie Walker IV

Who to watch: Damian Lillard, Tyler Herro

Brooklyn can have a discussion with Lillard as they have the right mix of draft assets, expiring contracts, and young players. The team is owed five first-round picks (including four unprotected) from the trades that sent Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and James Harden away. They also have their own first-round pick in 2029 and 2030.

What makes them hesitant to sign Lillard in is that Herro is also a good choice in order to facilitate a three-team swap between them, Portland, and Miami. Herro's rookie career with the Heat has delivered an average of 20.1 points, 37.8% of it from the 3-point line, and averaged a career-high 5.4 rebounds.

Brooklyn already lost Joe Harris in a trade deal with the Pistons, while Dru Smith has signed up with Miami and Yuta Watanabe with Phoenix.

The team also has to deal with the expiring contract of Spencer Dinwiddie, as well as the prospect of trading former first-round pick Cam Thomas and draft assets in a possible three-team trade.

Charlotte Hornets

Draft: Brandon Miller (2nd overall), Nick Smith Jr. (27th overall), James Nnaji (31st overall), Amari Bailey (41st overall)

Trade: N/A

Free Agent: Miles Bridges

Who to watch: PJ Washington

Others: LaMelo Ball (rookie extension)

Washington has been the Hornets' powerhouse this past season, missing only four games because of a foot injury in February. Career-wise, he averaged high on points (15.7) and minutes (32.7) in the past season. He was also one of only three players to record 800 half-court matchups against guards, forwards, and centers, with the other two being Scottie Barnes and Robert Williams III.

But even with the impressive stats, he remains a restricted free agent and in a holding pattern because of the lack of cap space available in the market.

While Charlotte currently has leverage, the team would be at risk if Washington signs a one-year, $8.5 million qualifying offer, similar to what Miles Bridges did, and then become an unrestricted free agent in 2024.

Golden State Warriors

Draft: Brandin Podziemski (19th overall), Trayce Jackson-Davis (57th overall)

Trade: Chris Paul (from Wizards)

Free Agent: Draymond Green, Cory Joseph

Who to watch: Klay Thompson and bench depth

Thompson played 69 games in the 2022-23 season after missing two-and-a-half seasons, which yielded an impressive record of being the third-best scoring average of his career. While he shot over 40% of his field goals from afar for the ninth time in 10 seasons, he shot under 60% on layups and only dunks for the first time since 2014-15. Also, his 47% scoring on two-pointers was his worst in a season under Steve Kerr.

He is eligible to sign a four-year, $233 million extension, but a contract that size would be reckless, considering Thompson would be set to earn $61 million in 2027-28 at the age of 37. Also, the Warriors do not have any players under contract beyond 2026-27, including Stephen Curry, who has three years left on his deal.

While Golden State has signed up Cory Joseph and drafted Brandin Podziemski and Trayce Jackson-Davis into the team, there are still vacant seats on the bench after trading Patrick Baldwin Jr., Jordan Poole, and Ryan Rollins to the Wizards, as well as losing Ty Jerome after signing with the Cleveland Cavaliers.

In addition, some of the team's heavy hitters like Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala, and Anthony Lamb, are unrestricted free agents.

LA Clippers

Draft: Kobe Brown (30th overall), Jordan Miller (48th overall)

Trade: Kenyon Martin Jr., Tarik Biberovic

Free Agent: Russell Westbrook, Mason Plumlee

Who to watch: Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, James Harden

Leonard and George have $48 million player options for the 2024-25 season and could be extended an additional four years for $223 million. However, both players have only been on the court for 41% of the time during the regular season and playoff games since 2019, raising questions if signing them up was a wise investment. Meanwhile, speculations are also on the rise if the Clippers should be even entertaining Harden's request even if he only has one season left on his contract.

With all that said, the team has the expiring contracts in Nicolas Batum, Robert Covington, Marcus Morris Sr., along with Norman Powell to move in a deal. They also have first-round picks in 2028, 2029, and 2030 available.

The Clippers was planning to sign Eric Gordon in, but he has eventually entered a deal with the Phoenix Suns. Westbrook and Plumlee have also signed their renewal deals with the team.

Miami Heat

Draft: Jaime Jaquez Jr. (18th overall)

Trade: Orlando Robinson

Free Agent: Thomas Bryant, Kevin Love, Josh Richardson

Who to watch: Damian Lillard

Others: Darius Days (two-way contract), Dru Smith (two-way contract)

Lillard has long intended to play for the Heat, but the team wonders if it would be at the cost of stripping most of the roster down after losing Victor Oladipo (traded to Thunder), Max Strus (signed with Cavaliers), Gabe Vincent (signed with Lakers), and Cody Zeller (signed with Pelicans).

Miami could only trade a maximum of only two first-round picks, which meant the asking price from Portland's perspective should center on younger players like Tyler Herro, Caleb Martin, Nikola Jovic, and this year's first-round pick Jaime Jaquez Jr. (who could not be traded until August because he recently signed his contract).

New Orleans Pelicans

Draft: Jordan Hawkins (14th overall)

Trade: N/A

Free Agent: Herbert Jones, Cody Zeller

Who to watch: Luxury tax and Damian Lillard

The Pelicans have already committed 66% of its salary to Zion Williamson, CJ McCollum, and Brandon Ingram. This leaves the team $6.5 million above the luxury tax, which they have never paid yet in franchise history.

While New Orleans is not on the list of possible Lillard destinations, it could offer a competitive trade package. Besides the ability to trade up to four of their own first-round picks, the Pelicans have a 2024 unprotected Lakers first (it can be deferred until 2025), 2027 unprotected Milwaukee first and two years (2024 and 2026) of first-round pick swaps with the Bucks.

In addition to such capacities, the Pelicans already lost Jaxson Hayes to the Lakers and Josh Richardson to Miami, freeing up some of its revenue for a theoretical Lillard inclusion.

However, what could present a challenge is cobbling together enough pay to put in a deal if it does not involve either Williamson or Ingram. Removing them and CJ McCollum would leave New Orleans with Jonas Valanciunas, Larry Nance Jr., Dyson Daniels, Kira Lewis Jr., Jordan Hawkins (cannot be traded for 30 days), Trey Murphy III, Garrett Temple and Jose Alvarado. The eight players earn a combined $54 million this season.

Read Also: HNGN's Coverage of the NBA

New York Knicks

Draft: N/A

Trade: N/A

Free Agent: Donte DiVincenzo

Who to watch: Josh Hart, Immanuel Quickley, James Harden

Others: Jaylen Martin (two-way contract)

Hart opted in to his $12.9 million contract and would now be eligible to sign up to a four-year, $81 million extension. Among all the league's guards in the regular season, he ranked third in rebounds (behind Luka Doncic and Josh Giddey) and second in offensive rebounds (behind only Giddey).

In 21 games as a starter, Quickley averaged 22.6 points and 5.1 assists, and shot 47% from the field and 40% on 3-pointers. He also ranked in the top 10 in field goal percentage allowed as the closest defender among players to defend at least 500 shots, according to Second Spectrum statistics. He is eligible to sign a five-year extension up until October 23.

As for Harden, a theoretical trade could improve the Knicks' roster if it meant releasing Evan Fournier and draft compensation. However, Fournier earns $18.9 million, and New York would need to include at least $13 million more in salary to make the numbers work.

The team already lost Derrick Rose after he signed up with Memphis.

Philadelphia 76ers

Draft: N/A

Trade: N/A

Free Agent: Patrick Beverley

Who to watch: James Harden

Others: Ricky Council IV (two-way contract) and Terquavion Smith (two-way contract)

According to ESPN, Harden opted into his $35.6 million salary for this season, leading him and Philadelphia to explore trade packages.

Trading Harden would be challenging for the 76ers as he would turn 34 next month, is in the last year of his contract, and is not eligible for an extension. This meant other teams were likely hesitant to give up their players, knowing the former MVP could leave as a free agent in 2024.

In addition, Philadelphia did not draft anyone for the upcoming season and also lost Jalen McDaniels to Toronto and Georges Niang to Cleveland.

Portland Trail Blazers

Draft: Scoot Henderson (3rd overall), Kris Murray (23rd overall), Rayan Rupert (43rd overall)

Trade:

Free Agent: Jerami Grant,

Who to watch: Damian Lillard

As for Portland and its prized guard Lillard, there is a delicate balance between the good of the star player and the good of the team.

On the one hand, there is a belief that the Trail Blazers should let Lillard go to Miami even if the return value is less than ideal. On the other is the thinking that the team should have a trade deal with a third team and put together the best trade package.

The team additionally lost Drew Eubanks to Phoenix and Cam Reddish to the Lakers.

With that said, Portland remains open for business with all 29 other teams and not just Miami, ESPN reported.

San Antonio Spurs

Draft: Victor Wembanyama (1st overall), Sidy Cissoko (44th overall)

Trade: Cedi Osman (from Cavaliers), Lamar Stevens (from Cavaliers)

Free Agent: Julian Champagnie, Tre Jones, Sandro Mamukelashvili

Who to watch: Cap space and Damian Lillard

Among the 30 NBA teams, The Spurs are the only one left with a significant cap space of $23 million (prior to a potential contract signing by Jones) and a lot of choices where to spend it.

They could repeat what they did last year by picking up draft assets while taking on unwanted contracts. The trades to acquire Devonte' Graham and Khem Birch netted San Antonio a first-round pick and six seconds. San Antonio also received a future second-round pick from Miami for taking back Dewayne Dedmon's contract.

The team could also put an offer on the group of restricted free agents like Ayo Dosunmu, PJ Washington, and Grant Williams. However, both Washington and Williams are more of a luxury and not a priority.

While Lillard is not a priority for the Spurs, sources told ESPN that he had a deep respect for the team. Should a Lillard trade materialize, San Antonio has up to nine first-round picks available in trade along with young players Keldon Johnson and Devin Vassell. They have already lost Keita Bates-Diop when he signed up with the Phoenix Suns.

Toronto Raptors

Draft: Gradey Dick (13th overall)

Trade: N/A

Free Agent: Jalen McDaniels, Jakob Poeltl, Dennis Schroder

Who to watch: Pascal Siakam, O.G. Anunoby, Gary Trent Jr.

The change in extension rules gave Toronto an extra $16 million to offer to Anunoby to extend his stint with the team. A four-year, $116 million extension would start at $26.1 million and replace his $19.2 million player option in 2024-25.Anunoby averaged 17.3 points on 54.1% shooting from the field and 44.2% shooting on 3s after the All-Star break.

Siakam is also eligible to sign a four-year, $189.1 million max extension in July. If he earns All-NBA status in the coming season, he would then become supermax eligible, which would increase the extension to five years and an extra $100 million.

As for Trent. he opted in to his contract for 2023-24 and is eligible to sign an extension up to four years and $117 million.

Utah Jazz

Draft: Taylor Hendricks (9th overall), Keyonte George (16th overall), Brice Sensabaugh (28th overall)

Trade: John Collins

Free Agent: N/A

Who to watch: Damian Lillard

Others: Jordan Clarkson (renegotiation and extension), Joey Hauser (two-way contract)

Like the Spurs, Utah is in a similar position in considering going all-in for 33-year-old Lillard. The team has an unprecedented seven first-round picks from Cleveland, Minnesota and the Lakers, five of them unprotected and the remaining two having minimal protection.

However, the Jazz's timeline for retooling its roster does not put the team in a position to include Lillard and the more than $200 million left on his contract.