China-Philippines Water Cannon Incident Aftermath: Experts Say Dispute Could Become Superpower Conflict

Analysts claim there's a significant escalatory potential in the territorial dispute.

The China-Philippines dispute could turn into a superpower conflict. Experts warned about this alarming prediction of what recently happened on the Spratly Island.

China-Philippines Dispute Prediction

China-Philippines Water Cannon Incident Aftermath: Experts Say Dispute Could Become Superpower Conflict
This photo taken on April 23, 2023 shows Philippine coast guard personnel aboard their rigid inflatable boat speeding past a Chinese coast guard ship after conducting a survey at Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratly Islands in the disputed South China Sea. TED ALJIBE/AFP via Getty Images

According to The Guardian's latest report, many countries are concerned about the naval activities of Beijing in the South China Sea and Taiwan.

Concerns about China's naval drills heightened after the incident in the Spratly Islands, where the Chinese coastguard directed a water cannon at a Philippine coastguard.

Since the Philippines is supported by the U.S., Australia, Japan, France, and the EU, experts think that the territorial dispute between China and the Philippines could escalate into a superpower conflict.

Blake Herzinger, a researcher at the University of Sydney's United States Studies Center, claims that there's a significant escalatory potential in the China-Philippines South China Sea dispute.

"Beijing's risky behavior in the region has the potential to draw the two powers into conflict even without intending to do so," he warned.

What Could Trigger Superpower Conflict?

China-Philippines Water Cannon Incident Aftermath: Experts Say Dispute Could Become Superpower Conflict
This photo taken on April 23, 2023 shows personnel of the Philippine Coast Guard ship BRP Malabrigo aboard their rigid hull inflatable boat preparing to conduct a survey in the waters of Second Thomas shoal in the Spratly Islands in the disputed South China Sea. TED ALJIBE/AFP via Getty Images

As of writing, the U.S. government has a mutual defense treaty with the Philippines. Washington said that it is committed to the obligations under this treaty.

This means that if ever Philippine public vessels and forces experience armed attacks, the U.S. government will defend them.

If these attacks will come from China and the U.S. gets involved, that's when the superpower conflict will start.

However, Alessio Patalon, an Asia at King's College London war and strategy professor, said that the activity that could trigger this mutual defense treaty is still unclear.

PH Gov Summons Chinese Ambassador

After the water cannon incident on the Spratly Islands, the Philippine government decided to summon China's ambassador on Monday, Aug. 7.

The Associated Press reported that Huang Xilian, China's ambassador to Manila, was handed a diplomatic protest by the Philippine Undersecretary Theresa Lazaro.

In this protest, the Philippine government said that Beijing should stop its illegal actions in the South China Sea.

Officials added that China must stop interfering in the legitimate naval activities of the Philippines and abide by international law.

However, instead of apologizing, China defended its activity. You can click this link to learn more details.

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China, Philippines, Experts
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