Nearly half of all Americans believe that there is some likelihood that they will see a civil war in their lifetime, with the majority of both Republicans and Black Americans beliving the nation could be split by an armed conflict, according to a new Marist Poll.
The thought of a violent conflict tearing the country in two, might've once seemed confined to the distant past. In recent years, however, the United States has seen increasing civil unrest. Notably, former President Donald Trump will almost certainly be the Republican nominee for president - four years after he was impeached for his alleged role in encouraging an armed insurrection at the Capitol building.
A slim majority of respondants - 52% - told pollsters that another civil war is either not very likely or not likely at all. When the results are delineated on partisan lines, 40% of Democrats and 41% of unaffiliated voters said they viewed a civil war as a possibility, compared to 53% of Republicans.
Black respondents were far more likely to see a civil war as a possibility than white respondants - with 57% of Black people saying that there is some liklihood and 22% saying a war is very likely. Half of Latinos and 43% of whites also believe there could be an armed conflict within the United States.
Millienials and Gen Z-ers were also more likely to believe civil war is a possibility than their older counterparts, though notably the poll asked for people to assess the likelihood of war in their lifetimes, rather than specifying how a specific timeframe. Women are also more likely than men to believe a civil war is a possibility.
The idea of an violent domestic conflict has also gained recent prominence in pop culture. Alex Garland's film "Civil War" was a box office success - with predominantly young, male audiences flocking to see the movie that depicted journalists attempting to interview an authoritarian president.
Sociologist Amy Cooter, director of research at the Center on Terrorism, Extremism and Counterterrorism at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, told NPR that while it was unlikely that a scenario similar to Garland's film would occur, there was still some possibility.
"I don't think that civil war is imminent, but I think there are some people who wish we would have one and wish that they could be effectively culture soldiers to reenact a civil order that they see as better for them and their families," she said.
"We aren't really expecting another January 6, but I think we're underestimating the risk that different state buildings may face or different politicians as individuals may face or even different flashpoints of violence around elections or school board happenings as they continue to move forward this year."
