The No. 11 seed Gonzaga Bulldogs (28-7) enter tonight's game against the No. 10 seed Syracuse Orange (21-13) as the favorite. In a matchup of double-digit seeds that will produce an Elite Eight appearance, who will come out on top? Here are our betting suggestions and prediction.
Gonzaga comes in as 4.5-point favorites after huge wins over Seton Hall and Utah in the 2016 NCAA Tournament. They were also the favorite in those matchups, but this is their biggest margin of the tournament.
Similarly, the Orange were the favorite against Dayton in the first round and Middle Tennessee State in the second round, but easily face their toughest opponent in Gonzaga. Both teams have similar records against the spread this year, which makes for an even more difficult betting matchup.
Gonzaga is 17-15-1 ATS, including 15-14-1 as a favorite and Syracuse is 18-15 ATS with a 7-6 record as an underdog. The Bulldogs are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games, eight of which they were the favorite (7-1), and the Orange are 7-3, four of which they were the underdog (2-2).
The over/under in this one is 135.5 and it seems as if at this point the over is the popular bet based on the way the two teams have been scoring in the tournament. Gonzaga has scored a total of 150 in their two games and Cuse has scored 145.
But how should we bet this game?
It's tough to say because Syracuse is 4-6 ATS as an underdog when the spread is four points or higher and Gonzaga is 9-14 ATS as a favorite when the spread is four points or higher. For some, this just might be a game of feel. Neither team should necessarily be where they are, so it very well could be a toss up (although ESPN experts say Cuse +4.5 is the pick).
Let's go with the easier pick with the o/u first. At 135.5, many would say that's good value. Syracuse has had 19 games this year in which the o/u was 135 or more and the over covered nine times, but it's important to note the times that the under covered: the o/u was 140 or higher in six of those games (Cuse is also 5-1 in those games) and the point total actually exceeded 135 in three of them. The o/u was split 17-17 on the season for the Orange.
On the other hand, Gonzaga hasn't had many games in which the o/u was under 140. The over has covered in 17 of their 33 games, which doesn't tell us much considering most of the overs were high. However, the fact that they've covered the overs more times than not at least helps a little.
There's not much to work with here, and I'd honestly pass on this one because the other games have more of an opportunity to win, but here goes nothing.
Suggested bets: Gonzaga -2.5 for first half; Syracuse +4.5 for game; over @135.5
Prediction: Gonzaga 72, Syracuse 69
